Friday, October 24, 2008

F is also for Forex (FT Alphaville)

F is also for Forex

Oct 24 10:11
by Izabella Kaminska

The forex markets are seeing an unwind of epic proportions this morning,

Latest key rates include:
$£ 1.5516

$Y 93.35

€$ 1.2798

The great British Krona’s decline is perhaps best reflected in chart form:

link to great british krona
Regarding the carry trades that may have got us into this trouble in the first place Denis Gartman of the Gartman letter put it nicely yesterday:

Perhaps we have entered a new era of forex market volatility that shall be with us for a very long while, but we suspect we shall never, ever, EVER see the likes of this punishing unwinding of this hugely important cross position again in our lifetime. Certainly we hope never to see its likes again.

Adding to that we must not forget the ‘Great Emerging Market’ forex debacle featuring the Polish zloty, Hungarian forint and the South African rand all heading for their biggest weekley declines EVER. At the last count:

  • The Zloty’s weekly decline is an impressive 16%
  • The Hungarian forint’s decline is a slightly less impressive 14%
  • And the “commodities trade” South African rand is down nearly 17% in the week
In Addendum - Wasn’t it the fall of the mighty denarius that actually brought down the Roman Empire?

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