Ok..downgraded..now what? by Ektoras

Fitch's move is important because it’s the first downgrade of a Euro-zone sovereign into the territory where securities were not eligible for the European Central Bank (ECB)collateral until their temporary change of rules in response to the crisis; an arrangement in place until the end of 2010. Unless the ECB fiddles with its rules before the end of next year, Greek sovereign bonds will no longer be eligible for ECB collateral - if Moody's or S&P downgrade them.
Eurogroup pushed Greece to deliver a revised (and tougher) budget by mid-January. Apart from the pressure from European colleagues, the Greece needs to take S&P very seriously.
The Euro-zone will probably welcome this in the hope that Greece will indeed do enough on their budget. Meanwhile, Greece now desperately needs to get its Euro-zone colleagues to buy into their January 2010 budget, because of the continued risk that something goes wrong during 2010.
It's unlikely for ECB to refuse collateral issued by one of its sovereign members, but we are right now solidly on the path in that direction. So something has to give. Greeks will cave in and do somewhat better on the budget to avoid an S&P downgrade in February, but then - if during 2010 things get worse we'll be back in the bind with another downgrade - and then the ECB to bend its rules or change the institutional arrangements for this thing not to get out of control.

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Memories..by Ektoras

Smells like 1999...But I am not sure if this is the first or the second half of the year..

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Dancing on a Volcano By Ektoras

Greece is on the brink of bankruptcy. Even the public sector is not in position to pay its obligations on time.
For about four years now, the public hospitals are not able to pay the medical suppliers and the suppliers face difficulties in paying their obligations to banks.Banks have stopped cooperating. They refuse to provide new loans and this has caused the entire system to collapse. Unfortunately it is not only the health sector which suffers. Banks are worried about the highly indebted Greek government they no longer see as being creditworthy.
The government debt per inhabitant in Greece and the EU stands at €20k and €15k respectively. Social unrest is what characterizes the Greek society. Unemployment keeps rising and at the same time strikes are a daily phenomenon.

On the other hand many claim that the Crisis has not hit the country yet. They keep talking about the cafés that are full of customers but – obviously- they do not take into account that the vast majority of the Greeks keep staying with their parents up until their late 20’s. This is not a matter of choice it a matter of one can cope with the average salary of €700! Those mentioning the full cafes argument also claim that in 2008 the economy expanded by 3.2%. NOT REALISTIC. The figure is the result of high demand and not high supply or productivity.
The European Commission has instigated disciplinary proceedings, because Athens has exceeded the euro zone budget deficit limit of 3 percent for the third time in a row. The results of audits carried out by Brussels look very different from what officials claim.
The level of competitiveness is low, much-needed reforms are overdue, government bureaucracy is bloated and corrupt, and the country continues to live beyond its means. Even though the national pension funds are chronically short of cash the government keeps pushing people, indirectly, to early retirement.
Educated young people from the middle class have little prospect of finding employment, despite being well qualified, and are forced to take casual jobs to make ends meet.
The EU is now no longer willing to accept lethargy on the part of the Greek government. EUcalled for significantly harsher cost-cutting measures and greater efforts with regard to structural reforms.
The Greek Business front fears that there could be a decline in the tourism sector, one of the most important pillars of growth in the Greek economy. The volume of tourist bookings from the United States and Britain is reported to have dropped by up to 50% and 30% respectively.
Banks, the other important pillar of the economy, are unsure about their investments in the Balkans. They invested billions of euros but the value of the national currencies in some of those countries has fallen dramatically and what was originally seen as an attractive investment in developing economies now could well turn out to be huge losses.
It seems that people will hardly cope with the crisis, if and when it hits the country with full force, using just its old inefficient habits.

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